Board of Education: Student Numbers in Decline

It could be the economy and it could be lower birth rates. But whatever it is, enrollment in Wilton's public schools is in decline.

At last week's Board of Education meeting, consultant Ellen Essman presented her enrollment projections, the highlight (or lowlight) of which was a marked anticipated decrease in the number of students attending Wilton public schools. The projected drop mirrors a statewide trend.

"There are openings in all the preschools in the area," Essman said. "So it's clear to me that the populations are declining...this is a national trend...school districts, on average, are expected between 2007 and 2020 to decline by 16 or 17 percent...on average, Wilton will be declining 13 percent between now and 2018."

Essman's presentation began with a review of Wilton birthrates, which have fallen from a 2000 high of 229 to an average of just about 150 over the last five years. When extrapolated, these numbers indicate Kindergarten enrollment will drop from a 2005 high of 335 students to a 2013 low of 250.

"I think we've peaked and I think we're in an obvious decline now," Essman added.

The struggling real estate market, which most believe has discouraged new families from moving into town, and the lower birthrate are the two largest factors contributing to the enrollment downturn. They could be partially mitigated by a slow economic recovery (which would depress migrations to private schools) and new housing starts, but such factors are difficult to forecast.

With Kindergarten numbers falling, class size in the upper grades is expected to lessen as well. 2008 saw a record 4297 students attending Wilton public schools in grades K-12. But in ten years' time, Essman estimates that will have diminished by 13 percent to 3788 overall students.

Assistant Superintendent Arlene Gottesman followed Essman's presentation with one of her own on how the school system goes about managing class size. Since the late 1980s, the BOE's aim has been to maintain a class size practice of 18-20 students in K-1 and 20-22 in grades 2-12.

A variety of criteria go into determining these numbers, and a bevy of research supports that smaller classes lead to positive factors like improved student achievement, easier classroom management, better interaction between students and teachers, and reduced classroom violence. Currently all of Wilton class size averages are in line with the goals.

Gottesman also touted Middlebrook School's teamed approach, which groups students according to factors like gender, scholastic acumen, special needs, and social/emotional placement recommendations.

Finally, Director of Financial Planning & Operations Ken Post presented September's financial report, which showed "no projected negative variances." There was an almost $200,000 surplus in special education costs (that was not included in the financial report because of the "volatile nature of these costs") and health benefits expenses exceeded budgets by about $125,000 (largely because claims in August were "very high" and revenues in July and August were low as employee contributions are collected from September through June). Both situations would continue to be monitored according to Post.

"This report is more boring than usual," he said to the board at the close of his presentation.

"Good," Superintendent Dr. Gary Richards replied. "Let's keep it that way."