CNN: OPPOSITION to Gun Control is SOARING (updated)

CNN Poll: OPPOSITION to Gun Control has SOARED 23% Since January 2013

{UPDATE 2: As a perfect, though sad indicator, that interest wanes with time, a Sandy Hook benefit concert in Chicago scheduled for this weekend was cancelled due to low ticket sales/interest. I am not saying this is a good thing, just reporting it.}

[UPDATE: A really good essay on this poll and public attitudes is at the site of Commentary Magazine, "Why Newtown Didn't Lead to Gun Control". Key bit related to this post:

"It is true that support for some measures like increased background checks and closing gun show sales loopholes do have strong support. But even there, resistance to those laws is fed by a sense that the liberals who claim they have no interest in taking anyone’s guns away aren’t telling the truth. As a Rasmussen poll conducted in September showed, 62 percent of those polled don’t think government can be trusted to enforce the laws fairly and 71 percent said it wasn’t possible for new laws to stop future Newtowns from occurring. A subsequent Rasmussen poll showed even more support for enforcing existing laws rather than trying new ones. The focus on so-called assault weapons was also quickly revealed to be more about cosmetics than firepower, further reducing the credibility of gun-control advocates.

The bottom line is that contrary to the expectations of liberals, the American people aren’t stupid. They understand that ideas like resurrecting assault-weapon bans and even more reasonable measures like background checks are items on the liberal legislative wish list, not an authentic response to a problem. While gun crimes are abhorrent, there is little reason to believe the liberal gun project will prevent them. All they will accomplish is to make it harder for law-abiding citizens to own guns. That’s why support for such laws is far lower today than it was 20 years ago when the Brady Bill passed."

ORIGINAL POST FOLLOWS

According to a new poll by CNN and ORC International , OPPOSITION to gun control has RISEN 23% since January. As a result, a majority of Americans no longer support gun control. Worth noting is that his poll was conducted November 18-20 well after the Navy Yard rampage shooting. 

But how can this be with anti-gun politicians and their supporters telling the nation that support for further gun control is increasing at a record pace? Well, maybe it isn't and they actually know that. 

Gun control advocates use the same play book as Rahm Emanuel and do not let a good crisis go to waste. Literally, they have a playbook. The guide to activism advises that “An emotionally-driven conversation about what can be done to prevent incidents…is engaging.”

So, after every suburban/exurban/rural tragedy involving firearms, the gun control complex runs to the microphones and keyboards to take advantage of the justifiably heightened emotions of the moment. Legislatively, they attempt to rush through legislation because they know anti-gun fervor following a gun-related tragedy is a wasting emotion. This is why the Hartford Democrats improperly used "emergency certification" to rush through their anti-gun bill using a less-likely-to-be opposed-by-GOP omnibus bill. 

Smart supporters of gun control ("smart" = those who understand human nature, not those moved by emotional events) understand that tragedy-stoked panic in our society for "doing something" or "preventing the next one" will inevitably dissipate as details of the event are better understood. The uproar regarding increased gun control after Virginia tech and Aurora withered, and now, so has the crisis-induced "furor" after Newtown faded.

Released on December 4th, the poll shows that 50% of Americans oppose more gun control. This is up 23% from a near historical low of 27% in January, mere weeks after Newtown.
 
Also, while 49% of Americans still support some unspecified degree of gun control, this number down from a multi-year high of 55% in January as well. For historical perspective, according to CNN:

"In December 1993, just days after the Brady Bill was signed into law, 70% of all Americans supported stricter gun control. By 1995, that number had dropped to 59%, and by early 1996 it had fallen to just 48%, the lowest level in CNN polling.

By the late 1990s, support for stricter gun control had rebounded to 62%, dropping again to 52% by 2003. A decade later, at the start of this year, it was still in the mid-50s before dropping to 49%."

This trend, a decline of support for greater gun control from 70% 20 years ago to less than 50% today, is something the gun control lobby does not want the public to know. However, it also shows that emotions drive these polls in that the Brady Law was an outcome of the assassination attempt on President Reagan during which Press Secretary Brady was gravely wounded. but note that support for more controls faded from near 70% to less than 50% in the ensuing two years. 

In the most recent CNN poll, it should not be a surprise that opinions on gun control vary by geographic region, as they have over the past 25 years since the rise of the gun control movement in the mid-1980s. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland says the drop in gun control support is due to regional differences:

" "Demographically speaking, the drop in support for stricter gun laws is mostly based on where people live, with a 10-point decline in the Midwest and a 15-point drop in urban areas having a lot to do with the overall decline nationally." Meanwhile, support for gun control can still be found in the Northeast and the West."

Did you note an in congruence above? Urban areas, the places most plagued by persistent gun violence involving illegal guns, saw a 15% drop in support for greater gun control! From two-thirds of urban dwellers down to barely a majority.

Why do you think that is? It can't be because urban residents are avid hunters or recreational shooters given the heavy restrictions on their gun ownership, gun transportation and gun usage. Why? 

Could it be because those in urban areas, those who feel the most threatened by gun violence, feel the need to be armed themselves? Could such folk be concerned that greater "gun control" could lead to heir losing their right to own and carry self-defense handguns? Isn't this fading of big city support for gun control totally in-congruent with the rhetoric put forth by gun control groups like Mayors Against Gun Violence, Moms Demand Action and CAGV?

Or, could it be that urban folk have listened to the rhetoric of the professional gun control lobby and have come to understand that the laws offered and passed are actually NOT focused on urban gun violence? That most of the gun control laws are about constraining the law-abiding gun owners in the suburbs, stereotyped as "middle-aged, conservative, white guys"?

Or, have urbanites realized that efforts like those in Hartford this year have been in response to, and aimed at preventing, random and rare suburban rampage massacres? That black rifle bans and magazine capacity limits will do nothing to make people in urban areas safer from the scourge of gun violence due to illegal handguns? 

And just maybe, urbanites realize that an incongruous amount of legislative time, effort and political capital is expended on the suburbs with little to no impact on the steady drip of urban gun violence. 

Personally, I think the uptick in urban opposition to more gun control is "all of the above". 

Beyond that, it is clear that the long-term steady state level of support for further gun control is right around 50%, notwithstanding the emotion-driven spikes after tragedy strikes. It is also clear by the continued record pace of firearms sales that Americans generally do not object to personal gun ownership. 

Irrespective of what might be shouted in Connecticut, the general trend on gun control is to maintain the status quo, though some areas would prefer a roll-back to less restrictions. Opposition to gun control, and the Hartford politicians who supported SB1160 is likely to be felt in CT during 2014 as the state's gun owners are enraged, engaged and looking to make sure they address what they see as being singled out for the acts of a crazy man. 

It should be noted that the CNN polls have a tendency to tilt a bit to the political left, partly due to their being polls of "adults" rather than "registered voters". Thus, the numbers opposing a right-of-center opposition to gun control above might be a bit muted. In this particular poll, according to CNN's detailed report: 

"A total of 843 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both land-line and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Among the entire sample, 31% described themselves as Democrats, 23% described themselves as Republicans, and 46% described themselves as Independents or members of another party."
We can argue about it but Republicans seem to be a bit under-weighted relative to the 2012 exit polls which showed turnout by ideology to be 25% liberal, 35% conservative and 41% moderate. By Party ID, 2012 was 38% Dem, 32% GOP and 29% Independent. An 8% under-weighting of GOP in the CNN poll is wider than the 2012 turnout differential and recent polls show self-identified Democrats as a declining number over 2013. Hmmmm.