Latest Quinnipiac polls shows supporting gun control in Connecticut does not increase a politicians standing with voters.
I wrote recently about the special election for a vacant CT House seat where a pro-gun Republican BEAT an ostensibly pro-gun Democrat in a district dominated by Democrats. In fact, this seat has been held by a Democrat since the 1970s. What happened to voters punishing pro-gun politicians in the wake of Newtown?
Well, if that were not enough, the latest Q Poll shows that Governor Malloy has not gain new supporters for his efforts in passing the recent state gun laws. Contrary to the agitprop spun by Connecticut Against Gun Violence and March for Change, voters are not rushing to support politicians promulgating gun prohibition regulations and restrictions.
But while the Governor's support for greater gun prohibitions is not a surprise, the Q Poll also shows tepid state-wide support for Hartford Republican leaders who supported the gun laws thinking it might make them more viable challengers to Governor Malloy in the 2014 gubernatorial contest. So in their efforts to appear to strike bipartisan support for measures that will NOT stop the next Newtown, both Senator McKinney and Leader Cafero sold their souls (and gun owners' rights) in the hope of garnering support in politically blue Connecticut.
Most importantly, Tom Folley, Gov Malloy's 2010 Republican challenger, is currently polling stronger than the sitting governor to whom he lost by less than 1% in the last election.
From Quinnipiac:
June 19, 2013 - Malloy-Foley Horse Race In 2014 Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Yes To Gun-Control
In a 2014 rematch of the 2010 Connecticut governor's race, Republican challenger Tom Foley gets 43 percent to 40 percent for Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Gov. Malloy is stuck in the mid-40s in other key measures, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds:
Voters have a split 46 - 44 percent favorable/unfavorable opinion of him;
Voters give him a split 47 - 47 percent job approval rating;
Voters as split on re-election as well with 44 percent of voters say Malloy deserves reelection, while 46 percent say he does not.
So the personally popular Governor, is polling well below 50% and trailing an undeclared challenger. Where is the ground-swell of support many Democrats thought were forthcoming in the wake of the passage of "the strictest gun control law in the country"? Could it be that even in blue Connecticut, politicians are graded on several levels? Could it be that spending, budgets, taxes and other such mundane matters actually drive voter support and enthusiasm?
And how do other Republicans fare against Foley, including McKinney and Cafero who were instrumental in the passage of the 2013 CT gun law? Turns out, not so good:
Foley leads the Republican primary with 36 percent, followed by State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney with 11 percent, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton with 8 percent and House Minority Leader Larry Cafero with 4 percent. Another 37 percent are undecided.
Malloy tops these largely unknown challengers, but can't break out of the mid-40s:
44 - 37 percent over McKinney;
43 - 36 percent over Boughton;
44 - 37 percent over Cafero.
So McKinney and Cafero have tepid support at best even after playing ball with Senator Williams and Rep. Looney in jamming that "bipartisan" crud sandwich of a bill down the throats of Hartford Republicans who dared not vote NO for fear of voter retribution.
Well, between last week's special election result and this poll (granted, a limited data set), there is no evidence thus far that being pro-gun hurts at the polls or that being anti-gun helps in polls.
And what about the Q Poll's findings vis-a-vis Governor Malloy and his gun prohibition policies?
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dannel Malloy is handling - gun policy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 47% 22% 72% 41% 40% 52%
Disapprove 44% 70% 18% 49% 52% 36%
DK/NA 10% 8% 10% 10% 7% 11%
COLLEGE DEG ANNL HSHLD INC AGE IN YRS
Yes No <50k 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+
Approve 57% 40% 48% 45% 54% 46% 44% 51%
Disapprove 36% 48% 39% 49% 40% 41% 48% 40%
DK/NA 7% 12% 12% 6% 6% 13% 8% 10%
Gun DENSITY HAVE KIDS
Hshlds Urban Suburb Rural <18 PubSchl
Approve 30% 53% 49% 38% 42% 41%
Disapprove 64% 38% 42% 52% 48% 51%
DK/NA 6% 10% 8% 10% 9% 8%
The above statistics have to be viewed in the context of gun ownership in Connecticut. Based on a range of surveys, it is thought that gun ownership in CT is only in the high teens or low 20s percent of households. Higher in rural areas, lower in suburban and lowest in urban centers. So, on a simplistic basis, assuming gun owners are monolithic in their views (they are not btw), 20% should be seen as solid disapproval for anti-gun policies by those with a vested, personal interest in the matter. This, anything above 20% is disapproval based on other grounds such as constitutional, self-defense, small government footprint, or other reasons not related to personal gun ownership.
So in blue Connecticut, the Gov draws 72% approval from Democrats, not a surprise. He gets 70% disapproval from Republicans, also not a surprise. But he gets a full 49% Disapproval from Independents, 4% more than Independents who Approve of his gun policies. THAT is telling, and should worry a sitting governor who polls below 50% in nearly every polled question and topic.
But let's take this one step further, how has support for the Governor's gun-prohibition policies polled over time? If this were a political winner for the Governor (or any like-minded Hartford politician), one would expect Approval by a majority of voters and increasing Approval as time passed from pre-legislation to post-legislation.
Back to the Q Poll:
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dannel Malloy is handling gun policy?
Jun19 Mar12 Mar06
2013 '13 '13
Approve % 47 48 41
Disapprove 44 39 38
DK/NA 10 13 21
Holy Counter-Intuitive public reaction Governor Malloy! Not only has Approval flat-lined below 50%, over time Disapproval has advanced to within the poll's margin for error.
But wait, there is more. Look at the dates of the two most recent polls. The Governor signed the bill into law in the first week of April. By the June 19th poll, people have had a chance to learn of and digest the details of the law which was rammed through under emergency certification as an all-encompassing omnibus bill. And guess what, the more people learned and understood, the more disapproval advanced.
Does this pattern feel familiar to anyone? Sound like Obamacare?
I said it back in March and I will say it again, those who stand to lose something (gun owners) are far more energized and motivated than those who are getting something ephemeral (gun prohibitionists). This was evident in the Hartford hearings in January, it was evident at the marches on Hartford and so far it is evident in the special election and the Q Poll.
In coming elections, voters are not going to electorally reward any elected Democrat official based solely on their anti-gun votes. Nor will they effectively punish any GOP legislator based a no vote. Citizen voters who were anti-gun before the Newtown massacre are not going to change their votes based on gun issues in future elections. They are likely generally liberal and being anti-gun is a cornerstone of such an ideology. Whether 1-issue or multi-issue voters, such folks are not voters who would vote differently based on gun votes. Sure, this is a generalization but how many GOP-voting liberals do you know in this state?
On the other hand, I have said that more than a few votes could be swung against one who vote in favor of the gun-prohibition law based solely on that vote. Among CT gun owners, many have become one-issue voters after the past six months and the way this law was rammed through. Some of the supported parts of the bill ("assault weapon" restrictions) but are now incredulous that they have to register rifles they have owned for decades and get a permit to buy ammo. Many of those folks, including members of my gun club, are not nominal Republicans with some having voted for the Governor in 2010.
Put succinctly, passage of this gun law in the manner it was passed will move more votes against supporters than it will against those who did not support it.
From my personal perspective, I will vote for Foley again should he run against Governor Malloy. However, if Mr. Foley decides to not challenge, I will vote FOR Malloy rather than support either McKinney or Cafero for Governor. To be clear, I will not abstain, I will vote against either of these Republicans from prevailing to the state's top post.
As for larger election impact, who knows. Gun-rights supports were active in last week' special election with both voter education and get out the vote efforts. One small example which may or may not mean anything more broadly.
But people are funny and are increasingly suspect of government overreach and regulatory encroachment. Since the April passage of the new gun law, we have seen the rise of multiple scandals in Washington DC all revolving around big government and its impact on our society and the threats to a range of Constitutional rights. Are voters awakening to the risks? Will they change their votes or turnout more frequently? Who knows but I personally sees a backlash brewing and it is not the type March for Change thinks it Might be.
(Drafted and submitted on an iPad so not sure formatting will hold up, especially tables).
